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Updated: 11/24/25 1:42 p.m.

7:00 p.m.
Detroit Pistons @ Indiana Pacers

Pistons: 14-2 (87.5%)

Pacers: 2-14 (12.5%)

Line: +10.5

Total: 235.5

Open: +8.5

Open: 236.0

Notes

Pistons

Baller System(s)

Back road favorite who won previous matchup at home

Pacers

Situational Factor(s)

Rest advantage

Well-rested (two or more days of rest)

In-season revenge

Double digit, in-season revenge

Baller System(s)

Over system based on rematch within 10 days and total is higher

Baller Index Our Exclusive nba Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

Pistons

58.40% probability

Total Recommendation

No Play

View All Algorithms

Algorithm	Season	Recent	Site
Normalized Regression	Pistons	Pistons	Lean Pistons
Rating Differentials	Pistons	Pistons	Pistons
Defensive Differentials	Pistons	Pistons	Lean Pistons
RMSE High Thresshold	Pistons (2x)	-	-
Broad Feature MAE2	Pistons (2x)	-	-
Basic Stats RMSE	Lean Pistons	Lean Pistons	Lean Pistons
RMSE Balanced	Pistons (2x)	Pistons (2x)	Pistons (2x)
Linear Regression Balanced	Lean Pistons	-	-
Cover Summary	Pistons	Pistons	Pistons
Pace Focused	Lean Over	Lean Over	Lean Over
Total Summary	No Bet	No Bet	No Bet
OVERALL	Pistons \| No Total Edge

Notable Trends

The Pistons are 75% (12-4) against the spread

The Pistons are 71.4% (5-2) against the spread away

The Pistons are 75% (9-3) against the spread as a fav

The Pistons are 78.6% (11-3) (L14) against the spread

The Pistons are 80% (4-1) (L14) against the spread away

The Pistons are 81.8% (9-2) (L14) against the spread as a fav

The Pistons are 80% (4-1) (L14) against the spread as an away fav

View All Records

Pacers (Home)

The Pacers are 43.8% (7-9) against the spread

The Pacers are 57.1% (4-3) against the spread at home

The Pacers are 50% (7-7) against the spread as a dog

The Pacers are 66.7% (4-2) against the spread as a home dog

The Pacers are 37.5% (6-10) to the over/under

The Pacers are 57.1% (4-3) to the over/under at home

The Pacers are 35.7% (5-9) to the over/under as a dog

The Pacers are 66.7% (4-2) to the over/under as a home dog

The Pacers are 42.9% (6-8) (L14) against the spread

The Pacers are 50% (3-3) (L14) against the spread at home

The Pacers are 50% (6-6) (L14) against the spread as a dog

The Pacers are 60% (3-2) (L14) against the spread as a home dog

The Pacers are 35.7% (5-9) (L14) to the over/under

The Pacers are 50% (3-3) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Pacers are 33.3% (4-8) (L14) to the over/under as a dog

The Pacers are 60% (3-2) (L14) to the over/under as a home dog

Pistons (Away)

The Pistons are 75% (12-4) against the spread

The Pistons are 71.4% (5-2) against the spread away

The Pistons are 75% (9-3) against the spread as a fav

The Pistons are 66.7% (4-2) against the spread as an away fav

The Pistons are 56.3% (9-7) to the over/under

The Pistons are 42.9% (3-4) to the over/under away

The Pistons are 58.3% (7-5) to the over/under as a fav

The Pistons are 50% (3-3) to the over/under as an away fav

The Pistons are 78.6% (11-3) (L14) against the spread

The Pistons are 80% (4-1) (L14) against the spread away

The Pistons are 81.8% (9-2) (L14) against the spread as a fav

The Pistons are 80% (4-1) (L14) against the spread as an away fav

The Pistons are 64.3% (9-5) (L14) to the over/under

The Pistons are 60% (3-2) (L14) to the over/under away

The Pistons are 63.6% (7-4) (L14) to the over/under as a fav

The Pistons are 60% (3-2) (L14) to the over/under as an away fav

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Date	Season	Team	Pts	Site	Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/17/25	2025	Pacers	112	Away	Pistons	127	+8.5	230.5	+15	239
01/29/25	2024	Pacers	133	Home	Pistons	119	-7.0	230.5	-14	252
01/16/25	2024	Pacers	111	Away	Pistons	100	-1.5	229.0	-11	211
11/29/24	2024	Pacers	106	Home	Pistons	130	-4.5	228.0	+24	236
10/23/24	2024	Pacers	115	Away	Pistons	109	-5.5	234.0	-6	224
03/20/24	2023	Pacers	122	Away	Pistons	103	-9.5	233.5	-19	225
02/22/24	2023	Pacers	129	Home	Pistons	115	-11.5	246.5	-14	244
12/11/23	2023	Pacers	131	Away	Pistons	123	-7.0	247.0	-8	254
11/24/23	2023	Pacers	136	Home	Pistons	113	-9.0	245.5	-23	249
Pacers as Home (4 games)			126.0	-	-	119.3	-8.0	237.6	-6.8	245.3
All Games Avg (9 games)			121.7	-	-	115.4	-5.2	236.1	-6.2	237.1

Schedules

Pistons Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/28/25	2025	Pistons	-	home	Magic	-	-	-	-	-
11/26/25	2025	Pistons	-	away	Celtics	-	+1.5	227.5	-	-
11/24/25	2025	Pistons	-	away	Pacers	-	-10.5	235.5	-	-
11/22/25	2025	Pistons	129	away	Bucks	116	-8.0	225.5	-13	245
11/18/25	2025	Pistons	120	away	Hawks	112	-1.5	226.5	-8	232
11/17/25	2025	Pistons	127	home	Pacers	112	-8.5	230.5	-15	239
11/14/25	2025	Pistons	114	home	Seventysixers	105	-1.0	229.5	-9	219
11/12/25	2025	Pistons	124	home	Bulls	113	+3.0	229.5	-11	237
11/10/25	2025	Pistons	137	home	Wizards	135	-11.5	236.5	-2	272
11/09/25	2025	Pistons	111	away	Seventysixers	108	-4.5	234.5	-3	219
11/07/25	2025	Pistons	125	away	Nets	107	-10.5	227.5	-18	232
11/05/25	2025	Pistons	114	home	Jazz	103	-9.5	233.0	-11	217
11/03/25	2025	Pistons	114	away	Grizzlies	106	-4.0	235.5	-8	220
Away Games Avg (5 games)			119.8	-	-	109.8	-5.7	229.9	-10.0	229.6
All Games Avg (10 games)			121.5	-	-	111.7	-5.6	230.9	-9.8	233.2

Pacers Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/28/25	2025	Pacers	-	home	Wizards	-	-	-	-	-
11/26/25	2025	Pacers	-	away	Raptors	-	-	-	-	-
11/24/25	2025	Pacers	-	home	Pistons	-	+10.5	235.5	-	-
11/21/25	2025	Pacers	109	away	Cavaliers	120	+13.5	242.0	+11	229
11/19/25	2025	Pacers	127	home	Hornets	118	+1.5	238.5	-9	245
11/17/25	2025	Pacers	112	away	Pistons	127	+8.5	230.5	+15	239
11/15/25	2025	Pacers	111	home	Raptors	129	+6.0	237.0	+18	240
11/13/25	2025	Pacers	98	away	Suns	133	+3.5	233.5	+35	231
11/11/25	2025	Pacers	128	away	Jazz	152	-2.0	234.0	+24	280
11/09/25	2025	Pacers	83	away	Warriors	114	+12.5	221.5	+31	197
11/08/25	2025	Pacers	100	away	Nuggets	117	+9.5	234.5	+17	217
11/05/25	2025	Pacers	103	home	Nets	112	-6.5	232.0	+9	215
11/03/25	2025	Pacers	115	home	Bucks	117	+6.5	235.5	+2	232
Home Games Avg (4 games)			114.0	-	-	119.0	+1.9	235.8	+5.0	233.0
All Games Avg (10 games)			108.6	-	-	123.9	+5.3	233.9	+15.3	232.5

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

7:00 p.m.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Toronto Raptors

Cavaliers: 12-6 (66.7%)

Raptors: 12-5 (70.6%)

Line: +2.5

Total: 235.5

Open: +3.0

Open: 239.0

Notes

Cavaliers

Situational Factor(s)

In-season revenge

Double digit, in-season revenge

2nd game of a back-to-back

3rd game in 4 nights

4th game in 6 nights

Raptors

Situational Factor(s)

2nd game of a back-to-back

3rd game in 4 nights

4th game in 6 nights

Baller System(s)

Fade team: Fatigue Factor + Letdown Spot

Baller Index Our Exclusive nba Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

Cavaliers

53.19% probability

Total Recommendation

No Play

View All Algorithms

Algorithm	Season	Recent	Site
Normalized Regression	Lean Cavaliers	Lean Cavaliers	Lean Raptors
Rating Differentials	Lean Cavaliers	Lean Cavaliers	Lean Raptors
Defensive Differentials	Lean Raptors	Lean Raptors	Lean Raptors
RMSE High Thresshold	Cavaliers (2x)	-	-
Broad Feature MAE2	Lean Cavaliers	-	-
Basic Stats RMSE	Lean Cavaliers	Lean Cavaliers	Lean Cavaliers
RMSE Balanced	Cavaliers (2x)	Lean Raptors	Lean Raptors
Linear Regression Balanced	Raptors	-	-
Cover Summary	Cavaliers	Raptors	Raptors
Pace Focused	Lean Under	Lean Under	Lean Under
Total Summary	No Bet	No Bet	No Bet
OVERALL	Cavaliers \| No Total Edge

Notable Trends

The Cavaliers are 71.4% (5-2) to the over/under away

The Cavaliers are 75% (3-1) (L14) to the over/under away

View All Records

Raptors (Home)

The Raptors are 58.8% (10-7) against the spread

The Raptors are 42.9% (3-4) against the spread at home

The Raptors are 57.1% (4-3) against the spread as a dog

The Raptors are 0% (0-1) against the spread as a home dog

The Raptors are 52.9% (9-8) to the over/under

The Raptors are 42.9% (3-4) to the over/under at home

The Raptors are 57.1% (4-3) to the over/under as a dog

The Raptors are 100% (1-0) to the over/under as a home dog

The Raptors are 64.3% (9-5) (L14) against the spread

The Raptors are 50% (3-3) (L14) against the spread at home

The Raptors are 50% (3-3) (L14) against the spread as a dog

The Raptors are 0% (0-1) (L14) against the spread as a home dog

The Raptors are 42.9% (6-8) (L14) to the over/under

The Raptors are 33.3% (2-4) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Raptors are 50% (3-3) (L14) to the over/under as a dog

The Raptors are 100% (1-0) (L14) to the over/under as a home dog

Cavaliers (Away)

The Cavaliers are 33.3% (6-12) against the spread

The Cavaliers are 42.9% (3-4) against the spread away

The Cavaliers are 31.3% (5-11) against the spread as a fav

The Cavaliers are 33.3% (2-4) against the spread as an away fav

The Cavaliers are 44.4% (8-10) to the over/under

The Cavaliers are 71.4% (5-2) to the over/under away

The Cavaliers are 43.8% (7-9) to the over/under as a fav

The Cavaliers are 66.7% (4-2) to the over/under as an away fav

The Cavaliers are 35.7% (5-9) (L14) against the spread

The Cavaliers are 50% (2-2) (L14) against the spread away

The Cavaliers are 33.3% (4-8) (L14) against the spread as a fav

The Cavaliers are 33.3% (1-2) (L14) against the spread as an away fav

The Cavaliers are 42.9% (6-8) (L14) to the over/under

The Cavaliers are 75% (3-1) (L14) to the over/under away

The Cavaliers are 41.7% (5-7) (L14) to the over/under as a fav

The Cavaliers are 66.7% (2-1) (L14) to the over/under as an away fav

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Date	Season	Team	Pts	Site	Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/13/25	2025	Raptors	126	Away	Cavaliers	113	+7.5	238.0	-13	239
10/31/25	2025	Raptors	112	Away	Cavaliers	101	+4.5	236.5	-11	213
02/12/25	2024	Raptors	108	Home	Cavaliers	131	+12.5	237.0	+23	239
01/09/25	2024	Raptors	126	Away	Cavaliers	132	+13.5	235.5	+6	258
11/24/24	2024	Raptors	108	Away	Cavaliers	122	+11.5	234.5	+14	230
10/23/24	2024	Raptors	106	Home	Cavaliers	136	+6.5	224.0	+30	242
02/10/24	2023	Raptors	95	Home	Cavaliers	119	+9.0	230.0	+24	214
01/01/24	2023	Raptors	124	Home	Cavaliers	121	-2.5	226.5	-3	245
11/26/23	2023	Raptors	102	Away	Cavaliers	105	+3.0	222.5	+3	207
Raptors as Home (4 games)			108.3	-	-	126.8	+6.4	229.4	+18.5	235.0
All Games Avg (9 games)			111.9	-	-	120.0	+7.3	231.6	+8.1	231.9

Schedules

Cavaliers Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/30/25	2025	Cavaliers	-	home	Celtics	-	-	-	-	-
11/28/25	2025	Cavaliers	-	away	Hawks	-	-	-	-	-
11/24/25	2025	Cavaliers	-	away	Raptors	-	-2.5	235.5	-	-
11/23/25	2025	Cavaliers	120	home	Clippers	105	-7.0	229.5	-15	225
11/21/25	2025	Cavaliers	120	home	Pacers	109	-13.5	242.0	-11	229
11/19/25	2025	Cavaliers	104	home	Rockets	114	+1.5	233.5	+10	218
11/17/25	2025	Cavaliers	118	home	Bucks	106	-5.5	234.5	-12	224
11/15/25	2025	Cavaliers	108	home	Grizzlies	100	-10.5	242.0	-8	208
11/13/25	2025	Cavaliers	113	home	Raptors	126	-7.5	238.0	+13	239
11/12/25	2025	Cavaliers	130	away	Heat	116	+4.5	239.5	-14	246
11/10/25	2025	Cavaliers	138	away	Heat	140	-7.5	248.5	+2	278
11/08/25	2025	Cavaliers	128	home	Bulls	122	-8.5	239.0	-6	250
11/07/25	2025	Cavaliers	148	away	Wizards	114	-13.5	240.5	-34	262
Away Games Avg (3 games)			138.7	-	-	123.3	-5.5	242.8	-15.3	262.0
All Games Avg (10 games)			122.7	-	-	115.2	-6.8	238.7	-7.5	237.9

Raptors Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/29/25	2025	Raptors	-	away	Hornets	-	-	-	-	-
11/26/25	2025	Raptors	-	home	Pacers	-	-	-	-	-
11/24/25	2025	Raptors	-	home	Cavaliers	-	+2.5	235.5	-	-
11/23/25	2025	Raptors	119	home	Nets	109	-11.5	229.5	-10	228
11/21/25	2025	Raptors	140	home	Wizards	110	-14.0	239.0	-30	250
11/19/25	2025	Raptors	121	away	Seventysixers	112	-2.5	232.5	-9	233
11/17/25	2025	Raptors	110	home	Hornets	108	-8.5	240.5	-2	218
11/15/25	2025	Raptors	129	away	Pacers	111	-6.0	237.0	-18	240
11/13/25	2025	Raptors	126	away	Cavaliers	113	+7.5	238.0	-13	239
11/11/25	2025	Raptors	119	away	Nets	109	-9.5	231.0	-10	228
11/08/25	2025	Raptors	120	away	Seventysixers	130	+5.0	237.0	+10	250
11/07/25	2025	Raptors	109	away	Hawks	97	+2.5	235.5	-12	206
11/04/25	2025	Raptors	128	home	Bucks	100	-2.5	236.5	-28	228
Home Games Avg (4 games)			124.3	-	-	106.8	-9.1	236.4	-17.5	231.0
All Games Avg (10 games)			122.1	-	-	109.9	-4.0	235.7	-12.2	232.0

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

7:30 p.m.
Dallas Mavericks @ Miami Heat

Mavericks: 5-13 (27.8%)

Heat: 11-6 (64.7%)

Line: -8.5

Total: 240.5

Open: -8.0

Open: 236.5

Notes

Mavericks

Situational Factor(s)

Rest advantage

3rd game in 4 nights

4th game in 6 nights

Baller System(s)

Fade team on back-to-back off win with minimal rest in recent games

Heat

Situational Factor(s)

2nd game of a back-to-back

3rd game in 4 nights

4th game in 6 nights

Baller Index Our Exclusive nba Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

Heat

58.06% probability

Total Recommendation

Over

58.75% probability

View All Algorithms

Algorithm	Season	Recent	Site
Normalized Regression	Lean Mavericks	Lean Mavericks	Lean Mavericks
Rating Differentials	Lean Mavericks	Lean Mavericks	Lean Mavericks
Defensive Differentials	Lean Mavericks	Lean Mavericks	Lean Mavericks
RMSE High Thresshold	Heat (2x)	-	-
Broad Feature MAE2	Heat (2x)	-	-
Basic Stats RMSE	Heat	Heat (2x)	Heat
RMSE Balanced	Heat (2x)	Heat (2x)	Heat (2x)
Linear Regression Balanced	Heat (2x)	-	-
Cover Summary	Heat	Heat	Heat
Pace Focused	Over	Over	Over
Total Summary	Over	Over	Over
OVERALL	Heat \| Over

Notable Trends

The Heat are 75% (12-4-1) against the spread

The Heat are 87.5% (7-1) against the spread at home

The Heat are 83.3% (5-1) against the spread as a fav

The Heat are 80% (4-1) against the spread as a home fav

The Heat are 85.7% (6-1) (L14) against the spread at home

The Heat are 83.3% (5-1) (L14) against the spread as a fav

The Heat are 80% (4-1) (L14) against the spread as a home fav

The Mavericks are 0% (0-4) to the over/under away

The Mavericks are 0% (0-4) (L14) to the over/under away

View All Records

Heat (Home)

The Heat are 75% (12-4-1) against the spread

The Heat are 87.5% (7-1) against the spread at home

The Heat are 83.3% (5-1) against the spread as a fav

The Heat are 80% (4-1) against the spread as a home fav

The Heat are 58.8% (10-7) to the over/under

The Heat are 50% (4-4) to the over/under at home

The Heat are 50% (3-3) to the over/under as a fav

The Heat are 40% (2-3) to the over/under as a home fav

The Heat are 69.2% (9-4-1) (L14) against the spread

The Heat are 85.7% (6-1) (L14) against the spread at home

The Heat are 83.3% (5-1) (L14) against the spread as a fav

The Heat are 80% (4-1) (L14) against the spread as a home fav

The Heat are 57.1% (8-6) (L14) to the over/under

The Heat are 57.1% (4-3) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Heat are 50% (3-3) (L14) to the over/under as a fav

The Heat are 40% (2-3) (L14) to the over/under as a home fav

Mavericks (Away)

The Mavericks are 38.9% (7-11) against the spread

The Mavericks are 50% (2-2) against the spread away

The Mavericks are 50% (6-6) against the spread as a dog

The Mavericks are 33.3% (1-2) against the spread as an away dog

The Mavericks are 33.3% (6-12) to the over/under

The Mavericks are 0% (0-4) to the over/under away

The Mavericks are 50% (6-6) to the over/under as a dog

The Mavericks are 0% (0-3) to the over/under as an away dog

The Mavericks are 35.7% (5-9) (L14) against the spread

The Mavericks are 50% (2-2) (L14) against the spread away

The Mavericks are 40% (4-6) (L14) against the spread as a dog

The Mavericks are 33.3% (1-2) (L14) against the spread as an away dog

The Mavericks are 35.7% (5-9) (L14) to the over/under

The Mavericks are 0% (0-4) (L14) to the over/under away

The Mavericks are 50% (5-5) (L14) to the over/under as a dog

The Mavericks are 0% (0-3) (L14) to the over/under as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Date	Season	Team	Pts	Site	Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
02/13/25	2024	Heat	113	Away	Mavericks	118	-3.5	218.5	+5	231
11/24/24	2024	Heat	123	Home	Mavericks	118	-3.0	221.0	-5	241
04/10/24	2023	Heat	92	Home	Mavericks	111	+5.5	215.5	+19	203
03/07/24	2023	Heat	108	Away	Mavericks	114	+4.5	229.5	+6	222
Heat as Home (2 games)			107.5	-	-	114.5	+1.3	218.3	+7.0	222.0
All Games Avg (4 games)			109.0	-	-	115.3	+0.9	221.1	+6.3	224.3

Schedules

Mavericks Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/29/25	2025	Mavericks	-	away	Clippers	-	-	-	-	-
11/28/25	2025	Mavericks	-	away	Lakers	-	-	-	-	-
11/24/25	2025	Mavericks	-	away	Heat	-	+8.5	240.5	-	-
11/22/25	2025	Mavericks	96	home	Grizzlies	102	+1.0	229.5	+6	198
11/21/25	2025	Mavericks	118	home	Pelicans	115	-3.5	234.0	-3	233
11/19/25	2025	Mavericks	111	home	Knicks	113	+8.5	233.5	+2	224
11/17/25	2025	Mavericks	96	away	Timberwolves	120	+14.5	232.5	+24	216
11/16/25	2025	Mavericks	138	home	Trailblazers	133	+3.5	236.5	-5	271
11/14/25	2025	Mavericks	127	home	Clippers	133	+3.0	221.0	+6	260
11/12/25	2025	Mavericks	114	home	Suns	123	+2.0	227.5	+9	237
11/10/25	2025	Mavericks	114	home	Bucks	116	+3.5	228.5	+2	230
11/08/25	2025	Mavericks	111	away	Wizards	105	-4.5	233.5	-6	216
11/07/25	2025	Mavericks	104	away	Grizzlies	118	+4.5	232.5	+14	222
Away Games Avg (3 games)			103.7	-	-	114.3	+4.8	232.8	+10.7	218.0
All Games Avg (10 games)			112.9	-	-	117.8	+3.3	230.9	+4.9	230.7

Heat Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/29/25	2025	Heat	-	home	Pistons	-	-	-	-	-
11/26/25	2025	Heat	-	home	Bucks	-	-	-	-	-
11/24/25	2025	Heat	-	home	Mavericks	-	-8.5	240.5	-	-
11/23/25	2025	Heat	127	away	Seventysixers	117	-1.0	241.0	-10	244
11/21/25	2025	Heat	143	away	Bulls	107	+2.5	250.5	-36	250
11/19/25	2025	Heat	110	home	Warriors	96	-10.5	234.5	-14	206
11/17/25	2025	Heat	115	home	Knicks	113	-1.5	244.5	-2	228
11/14/25	2025	Heat	132	away	Knicks	140	+6.5	240.5	+8	272
11/12/25	2025	Heat	116	home	Cavaliers	130	-4.5	239.5	+14	246
11/10/25	2025	Heat	140	home	Cavaliers	138	+7.5	248.5	-2	278
11/08/25	2025	Heat	136	home	Trailblazers	131	+4.0	242.0	-5	267
11/07/25	2025	Heat	126	home	Hornets	108	-7.5	235.5	-18	234
11/05/25	2025	Heat	112	away	Nuggets	122	+9.0	242.0	+10	234
Home Games Avg (6 games)			123.8	-	-	119.3	-2.1	240.8	-4.5	243.2
All Games Avg (10 games)			125.7	-	-	120.2	+0.5	241.9	-5.5	245.9

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

7:30 p.m.
New York Knicks @ Brooklyn Nets

Knicks: 9-6 (60.0%)

Nets: 3-13 (18.8%)

Line: +14.0

Total: 228.5

Open: +12.5

Open: 227.0

Notes

Knicks

Situational Factor(s)

Rest advantage

Travel fatigue (at least 4th straight game on the road)

Baller System(s)

Back road favorite who won previous matchup at home

Nets

Situational Factor(s)

In-season revenge

Double digit, in-season revenge

2nd game of a back-to-back

3rd game in 4 nights

Baller Index Our Exclusive nba Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

Knicks

56.67% probability

Total Recommendation

Under

54.58% probability

View All Algorithms

Algorithm	Season	Recent	Site
Normalized Regression	Lean Knicks	Lean Knicks	Lean Knicks
Rating Differentials	Knicks	Lean Knicks	Knicks
Defensive Differentials	Lean Knicks	Lean Knicks	Lean Knicks
RMSE High Thresshold	Knicks (2x)	-	-
Broad Feature MAE2	Knicks (2x)	-	-
Basic Stats RMSE	Lean Knicks	Lean Knicks	Lean Knicks
RMSE Balanced	Knicks (2x)	Knicks (2x)	Knicks (2x)
Linear Regression Balanced	Lean Knicks	-	-
Cover Summary	Knicks	Knicks	Knicks
Pace Focused	Lean Under	Under	Lean Under
Total Summary	No Bet	Under	No Bet
OVERALL	Knicks \| Under

Notable Trends

The Nets are 28.6% (2-5) against the spread at home

The Nets are 28.6% (2-5) against the spread as a home dog

The Nets are 16.7% (1-5) (L14) against the spread at home

The Nets are 16.7% (1-5) (L14) against the spread as a home dog

The Knicks are 0% (0-6) against the spread away

The Knicks are 0% (0-4) against the spread as an away fav

The Knicks are 0% (0-6) (L14) against the spread away

The Knicks are 0% (0-4) (L14) against the spread as an away fav

View All Records

Nets (Home)

The Nets are 46.7% (7-8-1) against the spread

The Nets are 28.6% (2-5) against the spread at home

The Nets are 46.7% (7-8-1) against the spread as a dog

The Nets are 28.6% (2-5) against the spread as a home dog

The Nets are 50% (8-8) to the over/under

The Nets are 57.1% (4-3) to the over/under at home

The Nets are 50% (8-8) to the over/under as a dog

The Nets are 57.1% (4-3) to the over/under as a home dog

The Nets are 46.2% (6-7-1) (L14) against the spread

The Nets are 16.7% (1-5) (L14) against the spread at home

The Nets are 46.2% (6-7-1) (L14) against the spread as a dog

The Nets are 16.7% (1-5) (L14) against the spread as a home dog

The Nets are 42.9% (6-8) (L14) to the over/under

The Nets are 50% (3-3) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Nets are 42.9% (6-8) (L14) to the over/under as a dog

The Nets are 50% (3-3) (L14) to the over/under as a home dog

Knicks (Away)

The Knicks are 53.3% (8-7) against the spread

The Knicks are 0% (0-6) against the spread away

The Knicks are 58.3% (7-5) against the spread as a fav

The Knicks are 0% (0-4) against the spread as an away fav

The Knicks are 66.7% (10-5) to the over/under

The Knicks are 50% (3-3) to the over/under away

The Knicks are 66.7% (8-4) to the over/under as a fav

The Knicks are 50% (2-2) to the over/under as an away fav

The Knicks are 50% (7-7) (L14) against the spread

The Knicks are 0% (0-6) (L14) against the spread away

The Knicks are 58.3% (7-5) (L14) against the spread as a fav

The Knicks are 0% (0-4) (L14) against the spread as an away fav

The Knicks are 64.3% (9-5) (L14) to the over/under

The Knicks are 50% (3-3) (L14) to the over/under away

The Knicks are 66.7% (8-4) (L14) to the over/under as a fav

The Knicks are 50% (2-2) (L14) to the over/under as an away fav

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Date	Season	Team	Pts	Site	Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/09/25	2025	Nets	98	Away	Knicks	134	+15.5	226.5	+36	232
04/13/25	2024	Nets	105	Home	Knicks	113	+4.5	210.0	+8	218
01/21/25	2024	Nets	95	Home	Knicks	99	+11.5	220.5	+4	194
11/17/24	2024	Nets	104	Away	Knicks	114	+10.0	221.0	+10	218
11/15/24	2024	Nets	122	Away	Knicks	124	+9.0	214.5	+2	246
04/12/24	2023	Nets	107	Away	Knicks	111	+10.5	209.5	+4	218
03/23/24	2023	Nets	93	Away	Knicks	105	+7.5	203.0	+12	198
01/23/24	2023	Nets	103	Home	Knicks	108	+4.0	223.5	+5	211
12/20/23	2023	Nets	102	Home	Knicks	121	+1.0	232.5	+19	223
Nets as Home (4 games)			101.3	-	-	110.3	+5.3	221.6	+9.0	211.5
All Games Avg (9 games)			103.2	-	-	114.3	+8.2	217.9	+11.1	217.6

Schedules

Knicks Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/28/25	2025	Knicks	-	home	Bucks	-	-	-	-	-
11/26/25	2025	Knicks	-	away	Hornets	-	-	-	-	-
11/24/25	2025	Knicks	-	away	Nets	-	-14.0	228.5	-	-
11/22/25	2025	Knicks	121	away	Magic	133	+2.0	229.0	+12	254
11/19/25	2025	Knicks	113	away	Mavericks	111	-8.5	233.5	-2	224
11/17/25	2025	Knicks	113	away	Heat	115	+1.5	244.5	+2	228
11/14/25	2025	Knicks	140	home	Heat	132	-6.5	240.5	-8	272
11/12/25	2025	Knicks	107	home	Magic	124	-4.0	227.5	+17	231
11/11/25	2025	Knicks	133	home	Grizzlies	120	-10.0	233.5	-13	253
11/09/25	2025	Knicks	134	home	Nets	98	-15.5	226.5	-36	232
11/05/25	2025	Knicks	137	home	Timberwolves	114	-3.5	228.5	-23	251
11/03/25	2025	Knicks	119	home	Wizards	102	-13.0	234.5	-17	221
11/02/25	2025	Knicks	128	home	Bulls	116	-7.5	235.5	-12	244
Away Games Avg (3 games)			115.7	-	-	119.7	-1.7	235.7	+4.0	235.3
All Games Avg (10 games)			124.5	-	-	116.5	-6.5	233.4	-8.0	241.0

Nets Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/29/25	2025	Nets	-	away	Bucks	-	-	-	-	-
11/28/25	2025	Nets	-	home	Seventysixers	-	-	-	-	-
11/24/25	2025	Nets	-	home	Knicks	-	+14.0	228.5	-	-
11/23/25	2025	Nets	109	away	Raptors	119	+11.5	229.5	+10	228
11/21/25	2025	Nets	113	away	Celtics	105	+13.5	221.5	-8	218
11/18/25	2025	Nets	99	home	Celtics	113	+11.5	222.5	+14	212
11/16/25	2025	Nets	129	away	Wizards	106	+3.0	231.0	-23	235
11/14/25	2025	Nets	98	away	Magic	105	+14.5	224.5	+7	203
11/11/25	2025	Nets	109	home	Raptors	119	+9.5	231.0	+10	228
11/09/25	2025	Nets	98	away	Knicks	134	+15.5	226.5	+36	232
11/07/25	2025	Nets	107	home	Pistons	125	+10.5	227.5	+18	232
11/05/25	2025	Nets	112	away	Pacers	103	+6.5	232.0	-9	215
11/03/25	2025	Nets	109	home	Timberwolves	125	+10.0	226.5	+16	234
Home Games Avg (4 games)			106.0	-	-	120.5	+10.4	226.9	+14.5	226.5
All Games Avg (10 games)			108.3	-	-	115.4	+10.6	227.3	+7.1	223.7

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

8:00 p.m.
Portland Trailblazers @ Milwaukee Bucks

Trailblazers: 7-10 (41.2%)

Bucks: 8-9 (47.1%)

Line: -1.5

Total: 232.5

Open: -2.5

Open: 236.5

Notes

Trailblazers

Situational Factor(s)

2nd game of a back-to-back

3rd game in 4 nights

4th game in 6 nights

5th game in 7 nights

Bucks

Situational Factor(s)

Rest advantage

Baller Index Our Exclusive nba Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

Bucks

54.24% probability

Total Recommendation

Over

56.67% probability

View All Algorithms

Algorithm	Season	Recent	Site
Normalized Regression	Lean Trailblazers	Lean Bucks	Lean Bucks
Rating Differentials	Lean Trailblazers	Lean Bucks	Lean Trailblazers
Defensive Differentials	Lean Trailblazers	Lean Bucks	Lean Bucks
RMSE High Thresshold	Bucks (2x)	-	-
Broad Feature MAE2	Lean Bucks	-	-
Basic Stats RMSE	Lean Bucks	Lean Bucks	Lean Bucks
RMSE Balanced	Lean Bucks	Lean Trailblazers	Lean Bucks
Linear Regression Balanced	Bucks (2x)	-	-
Cover Summary	Bucks	No Bet	Bucks
Pace Focused	Lean Over	Over	Over
Total Summary	No Bet	Over	Over
OVERALL	Bucks \| Over

Notable Trends

The Bucks are 80% (8-2) to the over/under at home

The Bucks are 28.6% (4-10) (L14) against the spread

The Bucks are 28.6% (2-5) (L14) against the spread as a fav

The Bucks are 77.8% (7-2) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Trailblazers are 70% (7-3) against the spread as a dog

The Trailblazers are 70.6% (12-5) to the over/under

The Trailblazers are 70% (7-3) to the over/under away

The Trailblazers are 25% (2-6-1) (L14) against the spread away

The Trailblazers are 25% (1-3) (L14) against the spread as an away dog

The Trailblazers are 71.4% (10-4) (L14) to the over/under

The Trailblazers are 77.8% (7-2) (L14) to the over/under away

View All Records

Bucks (Home)

The Bucks are 41.2% (7-10) against the spread

The Bucks are 50% (5-5) against the spread at home

The Bucks are 37.5% (3-5) against the spread as a fav

The Bucks are 60% (3-2) against the spread as a home fav

The Bucks are 58.8% (10-7) to the over/under

The Bucks are 80% (8-2) to the over/under at home

The Bucks are 50% (4-4) to the over/under as a fav

The Bucks are 60% (3-2) to the over/under as a home fav

The Bucks are 28.6% (4-10) (L14) against the spread

The Bucks are 44.4% (4-5) (L14) against the spread at home

The Bucks are 28.6% (2-5) (L14) against the spread as a fav

The Bucks are 50% (2-2) (L14) against the spread as a home fav

The Bucks are 57.1% (8-6) (L14) to the over/under

The Bucks are 77.8% (7-2) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Bucks are 42.9% (3-4) (L14) to the over/under as a fav

The Bucks are 50% (2-2) (L14) to the over/under as a home fav

Trailblazers (Away)

The Trailblazers are 50% (8-8-1) against the spread

The Trailblazers are 33.3% (3-6-1) against the spread away

The Trailblazers are 70% (7-3) against the spread as a dog

The Trailblazers are 40% (2-3) against the spread as an away dog

The Trailblazers are 70.6% (12-5) to the over/under

The Trailblazers are 70% (7-3) to the over/under away

The Trailblazers are 50% (5-5) to the over/under as a dog

The Trailblazers are 40% (2-3) to the over/under as an away dog

The Trailblazers are 38.5% (5-8-1) (L14) against the spread

The Trailblazers are 25% (2-6-1) (L14) against the spread away

The Trailblazers are 57.1% (4-3) (L14) against the spread as a dog

The Trailblazers are 25% (1-3) (L14) against the spread as an away dog

The Trailblazers are 71.4% (10-4) (L14) to the over/under

The Trailblazers are 77.8% (7-2) (L14) to the over/under away

The Trailblazers are 42.9% (3-4) (L14) to the over/under as a dog

The Trailblazers are 50% (2-2) (L14) to the over/under as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Date	Season	Team	Pts	Site	Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
01/28/25	2024	Bucks	112	Away	Trailblazers	125	-5.5	232.0	+13	237
01/04/25	2024	Bucks	102	Home	Trailblazers	105	-12.0	227.5	+3	207
01/31/24	2023	Bucks	116	Away	Trailblazers	119	-9.5	238.0	+3	235
11/26/23	2023	Bucks	108	Home	Trailblazers	102	-13.0	231.5	-6	210
Bucks as Home (2 games)			105.0	-	-	103.5	-12.5	229.5	-1.5	208.5
All Games Avg (4 games)			109.5	-	-	112.8	-10.0	232.3	+3.3	222.3

Schedules

Trailblazers Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/30/25	2025	Trailblazers	-	home	Thunder	-	-	-	-	-
11/26/25	2025	Trailblazers	-	home	Spurs	-	-	-	-	-
11/24/25	2025	Trailblazers	-	away	Bucks	-	+1.5	232.5	-	-
11/23/25	2025	Trailblazers	95	away	Thunder	122	+16.5	233.5	+27	217
11/21/25	2025	Trailblazers	127	away	Warriors	123	+10.5	237.0	-4	250
11/19/25	2025	Trailblazers	121	home	Bulls	122	+3.5	245.5	+1	243
11/18/25	2025	Trailblazers	110	home	Suns	127	-2.5	235.5	+17	237
11/16/25	2025	Trailblazers	133	away	Mavericks	138	-3.5	236.5	+5	271
11/14/25	2025	Trailblazers	116	away	Rockets	140	+7.5	236.5	+24	256
11/12/25	2025	Trailblazers	125	away	Pelicans	117	-8.0	232.0	-8	242
11/10/25	2025	Trailblazers	112	away	Magic	115	+2.5	234.5	+3	227
11/08/25	2025	Trailblazers	131	away	Heat	136	-4.0	242.0	+5	267
11/05/25	2025	Trailblazers	121	home	Thunder	119	+3.5	231.5	-2	240
Away Games Avg (7 games)			119.9	-	-	127.3	+3.1	236.0	+7.4	247.1
All Games Avg (10 games)			119.1	-	-	125.9	+2.6	236.5	+6.8	245.0

Bucks Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/28/25	2025	Bucks	-	away	Knicks	-	-	-	-	-
11/26/25	2025	Bucks	-	away	Heat	-	-	-	-	-
11/24/25	2025	Bucks	-	home	Trailblazers	-	-1.5	232.5	-	-
11/22/25	2025	Bucks	116	home	Pistons	129	+8.0	225.5	+13	245
11/20/25	2025	Bucks	114	home	Seventysixers	123	+2.5	223.5	+9	237
11/17/25	2025	Bucks	106	away	Cavaliers	118	+5.5	234.5	+12	224
11/15/25	2025	Bucks	95	home	Lakers	119	-2.0	230.0	+24	214
11/14/25	2025	Bucks	147	home	Hornets	134	-9.0	238.0	-13	281
11/12/25	2025	Bucks	100	away	Hornets	111	-2.5	228.0	+11	211
11/10/25	2025	Bucks	116	away	Mavericks	114	-3.5	228.5	-2	230
11/09/25	2025	Bucks	115	home	Rockets	122	+3.5	232.5	+7	237
11/07/25	2025	Bucks	126	home	Bulls	110	-4.5	239.5	-16	236
11/04/25	2025	Bucks	100	away	Raptors	128	+2.5	236.5	+28	228
Home Games Avg (6 games)			118.8	-	-	122.8	-0.3	231.5	+4.0	241.7
All Games Avg (10 games)			113.5	-	-	120.8	+0.1	231.7	+7.3	234.3

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

8:00 p.m.
Denver Nuggets @ Memphis Grizzlies

Nuggets: 12-4 (75.0%)

Grizzlies: 6-11 (35.3%)

Line: +8.0

Total: 233.0

Open: +7.5

Open: 232.5

Notes

Nuggets

Situational Factor(s)

Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

3rd game in 4 nights

4th game in 6 nights

Baller System(s)

Back road favorite off loss as a home fav

Back favorites off a loss vs. a team on a short win streak.

Grizzlies

Nothing active

Baller Index Our Exclusive nba Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

Nuggets

55.63% probability

Total Recommendation

No Play

View All Algorithms

Algorithm	Season	Recent	Site
Normalized Regression	Lean Grizzlies	Lean Grizzlies	Lean Grizzlies
Rating Differentials	Lean Grizzlies	Grizzlies	Lean Grizzlies
Defensive Differentials	Lean Grizzlies	Lean Grizzlies	Lean Grizzlies
RMSE High Thresshold	Nuggets (2x)	-	-
Broad Feature MAE2	Nuggets (2x)	-	-
Basic Stats RMSE	Lean Nuggets	Lean Nuggets	Lean Nuggets
RMSE Balanced	Nuggets (2x)	Nuggets (2x)	Nuggets (2x)
Linear Regression Balanced	Lean Nuggets	-	-
Cover Summary	Nuggets	Nuggets	Nuggets
Pace Focused	Lean Under	Lean Under	Lean Under
Total Summary	No Bet	No Bet	No Bet
OVERALL	Nuggets \| No Total Edge

Notable Trends

The Grizzlies are 10% (1-9) against the spread as a dog

The Grizzlies are 0% (0-4) against the spread as a home dog

The Grizzlies are 29.4% (5-12) to the over/under

The Grizzlies are 30% (3-7) to the over/under as a dog

The Grizzlies are 25% (1-3) to the over/under as a home dog

The Grizzlies are 28.6% (4-10) (L14) against the spread

The Grizzlies are 10% (1-9) (L14) against the spread as a dog

The Grizzlies are 0% (0-4) (L14) against the spread as a home dog

The Grizzlies are 21.4% (3-11) (L14) to the over/under

The Grizzlies are 16.7% (1-5) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Grizzlies are 30% (3-7) (L14) to the over/under as a dog

The Grizzlies are 25% (1-3) (L14) to the over/under as a home dog

The Nuggets are 71.4% (5-2) (L14) against the spread away

View All Records

Grizzlies (Home)

The Grizzlies are 35.3% (6-11) against the spread

The Grizzlies are 44.4% (4-5) against the spread at home

The Grizzlies are 10% (1-9) against the spread as a dog

The Grizzlies are 0% (0-4) against the spread as a home dog

The Grizzlies are 29.4% (5-12) to the over/under

The Grizzlies are 33.3% (3-6) to the over/under at home

The Grizzlies are 30% (3-7) to the over/under as a dog

The Grizzlies are 25% (1-3) to the over/under as a home dog

The Grizzlies are 28.6% (4-10) (L14) against the spread

The Grizzlies are 33.3% (2-4) (L14) against the spread at home

The Grizzlies are 10% (1-9) (L14) against the spread as a dog

The Grizzlies are 0% (0-4) (L14) against the spread as a home dog

The Grizzlies are 21.4% (3-11) (L14) to the over/under

The Grizzlies are 16.7% (1-5) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Grizzlies are 30% (3-7) (L14) to the over/under as a dog

The Grizzlies are 25% (1-3) (L14) to the over/under as a home dog

Nuggets (Away)

The Nuggets are 62.5% (10-6) against the spread

The Nuggets are 62.5% (5-3) against the spread away

The Nuggets are 64.3% (9-5) against the spread as a fav

The Nuggets are 66.7% (4-2) against the spread as an away fav

The Nuggets are 56.3% (9-7) to the over/under

The Nuggets are 50% (4-4) to the over/under away

The Nuggets are 57.1% (8-6) to the over/under as a fav

The Nuggets are 50% (3-3) to the over/under as an away fav

The Nuggets are 64.3% (9-5) (L14) against the spread

The Nuggets are 71.4% (5-2) (L14) against the spread away

The Nuggets are 61.5% (8-5) (L14) against the spread as a fav

The Nuggets are 66.7% (4-2) (L14) against the spread as an away fav

The Nuggets are 50% (7-7) (L14) to the over/under

The Nuggets are 42.9% (3-4) (L14) to the over/under away

The Nuggets are 53.8% (7-6) (L14) to the over/under as a fav

The Nuggets are 50% (3-3) (L14) to the over/under as an away fav

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Date	Season	Team	Pts	Site	Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
04/11/25	2024	Grizzlies	109	Away	Nuggets	117	+7.0	246.0	+8	226
11/19/24	2024	Grizzlies	110	Home	Nuggets	122	-6.0	224.0	+12	232
11/17/24	2024	Grizzlies	105	Home	Nuggets	90	-6.0	229.0	-15	195
04/14/24	2023	Grizzlies	111	Home	Nuggets	126	+14.0	216.5	+15	237
03/25/24	2023	Grizzlies	103	Away	Nuggets	128	+14.5	214.0	+25	231
12/28/23	2023	Grizzlies	105	Away	Nuggets	142	+8.5	224.0	+37	247
10/27/23	2023	Grizzlies	104	Home	Nuggets	108	+6.0	221.5	+4	212
Grizzlies as Home (4 games)			107.5	-	-	111.5	+2.0	222.8	+4.0	219.0
All Games Avg (7 games)			106.7	-	-	119.0	+5.4	225.0	+12.3	225.7

Schedules

Nuggets Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/29/25	2025	Nuggets	-	away	Suns	-	-	-	-	-
11/28/25	2025	Nuggets	-	home	Spurs	-	-	-	-	-
11/24/25	2025	Nuggets	-	away	Grizzlies	-	-8.0	233.0	-	-
11/22/25	2025	Nuggets	123	home	Kings	128	-11.0	239.5	+5	251
11/21/25	2025	Nuggets	112	away	Rockets	109	+3.0	234.0	-3	221
11/19/25	2025	Nuggets	125	away	Pelicans	118	-10.5	235.5	-7	243
11/17/25	2025	Nuggets	127	home	Bulls	130	-13.5	241.5	+3	257
11/15/25	2025	Nuggets	123	away	Timberwolves	112	-1.0	237.0	-11	235
11/12/25	2025	Nuggets	130	away	Clippers	116	-4.5	225.0	-14	246
11/11/25	2025	Nuggets	122	away	Kings	108	-8.0	244.5	-14	230
11/08/25	2025	Nuggets	117	home	Pacers	100	-9.5	234.5	-17	217
11/07/25	2025	Nuggets	129	home	Warriors	104	-9.5	230.5	-25	233
11/05/25	2025	Nuggets	122	home	Heat	112	-9.0	242.0	-10	234
Away Games Avg (5 games)			122.4	-	-	112.6	-4.2	235.2	-9.8	235.0
All Games Avg (10 games)			123.0	-	-	113.7	-7.4	236.4	-9.3	236.7

Grizzlies Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/28/25	2025	Grizzlies	-	away	Clippers	-	-	-	-	-
11/26/25	2025	Grizzlies	-	away	Pelicans	-	-	-	-	-
11/24/25	2025	Grizzlies	-	home	Nuggets	-	+8.0	233.0	-	-
11/22/25	2025	Grizzlies	102	away	Mavericks	96	-1.0	229.5	-6	198
11/20/25	2025	Grizzlies	137	home	Kings	96	-3.5	234.5	-41	233
11/18/25	2025	Grizzlies	101	away	Spurs	111	+6.5	234.5	+10	212
11/15/25	2025	Grizzlies	100	away	Cavaliers	108	+10.5	242.0	+8	208
11/12/25	2025	Grizzlies	95	away	Celtics	131	+8.5	227.5	+36	226
11/11/25	2025	Grizzlies	120	away	Knicks	133	+10.0	233.5	+13	253
11/09/25	2025	Grizzlies	100	home	Thunder	114	+10.5	230.5	+14	214
11/07/25	2025	Grizzlies	118	home	Mavericks	104	-4.5	232.5	-14	222
11/05/25	2025	Grizzlies	109	home	Rockets	124	+7.5	232.5	+15	233
11/03/25	2025	Grizzlies	106	home	Pistons	114	+4.0	235.5	+8	220
Home Games Avg (5 games)			114.0	-	-	110.4	+2.8	233.1	-3.6	224.4
All Games Avg (10 games)			108.8	-	-	113.1	+4.9	233.3	+4.3	221.9

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

8:00 p.m.
Chicago Bulls @ New Orleans Pelicans

Bulls: 9-7 (56.3%)

Pelicans: 2-15 (11.8%)

Line: +5.5

Total: 244.5

Open: +5.0

Open: 241.5

Notes

Bulls

Situational Factor(s)

3rd game in 4 nights

4th game in 6 nights

Pelicans

Situational Factor(s)

3rd game in 4 nights

4th game in 6 nights

Baller Index Our Exclusive nba Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

Bulls

57.01% probability

Total Recommendation

No Play

View All Algorithms

Algorithm	Season	Recent	Site
Normalized Regression	Lean Bulls	Lean Bulls	Lean Bulls
Rating Differentials	Bulls	Bulls	Bulls
Defensive Differentials	Lean Bulls	Lean Bulls	Bulls
RMSE High Thresshold	Bulls (2x)	-	-
Broad Feature MAE2	Bulls	-	-
Basic Stats RMSE	Lean Bulls	Lean Bulls	Lean Bulls
RMSE Balanced	Bulls (2x)	Bulls (2x)	Bulls (2x)
Linear Regression Balanced	Lean Bulls	-	-
Cover Summary	Bulls	Bulls	Bulls
Pace Focused	Lean Under	Lean Under	Lean Under
Total Summary	No Bet	No Bet	No Bet
OVERALL	Bulls \| No Total Edge

Notable Trends

The Pelicans are 28.6% (2-5-1) against the spread as a home dog

The Bulls are 16.7% (1-5-1) against the spread as a fav

The Bulls are 28.6% (2-5) (L14) against the spread away

The Bulls are 16.7% (1-5-1) (L14) against the spread as a fav

The Bulls are 71.4% (5-2) (L14) to the over/under away

View All Records

Pelicans (Home)

The Pelicans are 43.8% (7-9-1) against the spread

The Pelicans are 37.5% (3-5-1) against the spread at home

The Pelicans are 40% (6-9-1) against the spread as a dog

The Pelicans are 28.6% (2-5-1) against the spread as a home dog

The Pelicans are 52.9% (9-8) to the over/under

The Pelicans are 55.6% (5-4) to the over/under at home

The Pelicans are 56.3% (9-7) to the over/under as a dog

The Pelicans are 62.5% (5-3) to the over/under as a home dog

The Pelicans are 53.8% (7-6-1) (L14) against the spread

The Pelicans are 50% (3-3-1) (L14) against the spread at home

The Pelicans are 50% (6-6-1) (L14) against the spread as a dog

The Pelicans are 40% (2-3-1) (L14) against the spread as a home dog

The Pelicans are 50% (7-7) (L14) to the over/under

The Pelicans are 57.1% (4-3) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Pelicans are 53.8% (7-6) (L14) to the over/under as a dog

The Pelicans are 66.7% (4-2) (L14) to the over/under as a home dog

Bulls (Away)

The Bulls are 53.3% (8-7-1) against the spread

The Bulls are 37.5% (3-5) against the spread away

The Bulls are 16.7% (1-5-1) against the spread as a fav

The Bulls are 0% (0-3) against the spread as an away fav

The Bulls are 56.3% (9-7) to the over/under

The Bulls are 62.5% (5-3) to the over/under away

The Bulls are 42.9% (3-4) to the over/under as a fav

The Bulls are 66.7% (2-1) to the over/under as an away fav

The Bulls are 46.2% (6-7-1) (L14) against the spread

The Bulls are 28.6% (2-5) (L14) against the spread away

The Bulls are 16.7% (1-5-1) (L14) against the spread as a fav

The Bulls are 0% (0-3) (L14) against the spread as an away fav

The Bulls are 64.3% (9-5) (L14) to the over/under

The Bulls are 71.4% (5-2) (L14) to the over/under away

The Bulls are 42.9% (3-4) (L14) to the over/under as a fav

The Bulls are 66.7% (2-1) (L14) to the over/under as an away fav

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Date	Season	Team	Pts	Site	Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
01/14/25	2024	Pelicans	119	Away	Bulls	113	+1.5	243.0	-6	232
10/23/24	2024	Pelicans	123	Home	Bulls	111	-5.0	225.0	-12	234
02/25/24	2023	Pelicans	106	Home	Bulls	114	-4.0	222.5	+8	220
12/02/23	2023	Pelicans	118	Away	Bulls	124	-3.0	220.0	+6	242
Pelicans as Home (2 games)			114.5	-	-	112.5	-4.5	223.8	-2.0	227.0
All Games Avg (4 games)			116.5	-	-	115.5	-2.6	227.6	-1.0	232.0

Schedules

Bulls Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/29/25	2025	Bulls	-	away	Pacers	-	-	-	-	-
11/28/25	2025	Bulls	-	away	Hornets	-	-	-	-	-
11/24/25	2025	Bulls	-	away	Pelicans	-	-5.5	244.5	-	-
11/22/25	2025	Bulls	121	home	Wizards	120	-13.0	246.0	-1	241
11/21/25	2025	Bulls	107	home	Heat	143	-2.5	250.5	+36	250
11/19/25	2025	Bulls	122	away	Trailblazers	121	-3.5	245.5	-1	243
11/17/25	2025	Bulls	130	away	Nuggets	127	+13.5	241.5	-3	257
11/16/25	2025	Bulls	147	away	Jazz	150	-4.5	244.5	+3	297
11/12/25	2025	Bulls	113	away	Pistons	124	-3.0	229.5	+11	237
11/10/25	2025	Bulls	117	home	Spurs	121	+5.5	235.5	+4	238
11/08/25	2025	Bulls	122	away	Cavaliers	128	+8.5	239.0	+6	250
11/07/25	2025	Bulls	110	away	Bucks	126	+4.5	239.5	+16	236
11/04/25	2025	Bulls	113	home	Seventysixers	111	-2.0	240.0	-2	224
Away Games Avg (6 games)			124.0	-	-	129.3	+2.6	239.9	+5.3	253.3
All Games Avg (10 games)			120.2	-	-	127.1	+0.4	241.2	+6.9	247.3

Pelicans Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/29/25	2025	Pelicans	-	away	Warriors	-	-	-	-	-
11/26/25	2025	Pelicans	-	home	Grizzlies	-	-	-	-	-
11/24/25	2025	Pelicans	-	home	Bulls	-	+5.5	244.5	-	-
11/22/25	2025	Pelicans	98	home	Hawks	115	+10.0	231.0	+17	213
11/21/25	2025	Pelicans	115	away	Mavericks	118	+3.5	234.0	+3	233
11/19/25	2025	Pelicans	118	home	Nuggets	125	+10.5	235.5	+7	243
11/17/25	2025	Pelicans	109	home	Thunder	126	+18.5	222.5	+17	235
11/16/25	2025	Pelicans	106	home	Warriors	124	+11.0	226.5	+18	230
11/14/25	2025	Pelicans	104	home	Lakers	118	+9.5	227.0	+14	222
11/12/25	2025	Pelicans	117	home	Trailblazers	125	+8.0	232.0	+8	242
11/10/25	2025	Pelicans	98	away	Suns	121	+8.5	227.5	+23	219
11/08/25	2025	Pelicans	119	away	Spurs	126	+11.0	223.5	+7	245
11/05/25	2025	Pelicans	101	away	Mavericks	99	+8.0	226.0	-2	200
Home Games Avg (6 games)			108.7	-	-	122.2	+11.3	229.1	+13.5	230.8
All Games Avg (10 games)			108.5	-	-	119.7	+9.9	228.6	+11.2	228.2

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

9:30 p.m.
Houston Rockets @ Phoenix Suns

Rockets: 10-4 (71.4%)

Suns: 11-6 (64.7%)

Line: +6.5

Total: 224.5

Open: +6.0

Open: 232.5

Notes

Rockets

Situational Factor(s)

Rest advantage

Well-rested (two or more days of rest)

Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Baller System(s)

Back road favorite off loss as a home fav

Back favorites off a loss vs. a team on a short win streak.

Back team with rest advantage (2+ days vs. B2B)

Suns

Situational Factor(s)

2nd game of a back-to-back

3rd game in 4 nights

Baller Index Our Exclusive nba Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

Rockets

52.85% probability

Total Recommendation

Under

54.58% probability

View All Algorithms

Algorithm	Season	Recent	Site
Normalized Regression	Lean Suns	Suns	Lean Suns
Rating Differentials	Lean Suns	Suns	Suns
Defensive Differentials	Lean Suns	Suns	Suns
RMSE High Thresshold	Rockets (2x)	-	-
Broad Feature MAE2	Lean Rockets	-	-
Basic Stats RMSE	Lean Rockets	Lean Rockets	Lean Rockets
RMSE Balanced	Rockets (2x)	Rockets (2x)	Lean Rockets
Linear Regression Balanced	Lean Rockets	-	-
Cover Summary	Rockets	Suns	Suns
Pace Focused	Lean Under	Under	Lean Under
Total Summary	No Bet	Under	No Bet
OVERALL	Rockets \| Under

Notable Trends

The Suns are 70.6% (12-5) against the spread

The Suns are 90% (9-1) against the spread at home

The Suns are 30% (3-7) to the over/under at home

The Suns are 78.6% (11-3) (L14) against the spread

The Suns are 88.9% (8-1) (L14) against the spread at home

The Suns are 71.4% (5-2) (L14) against the spread as a dog

The Suns are 22.2% (2-7) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Rockets are 85.7% (6-1) against the spread away

The Rockets are 83.3% (5-1) against the spread as an away fav

The Rockets are 71.4% (10-4) to the over/under

The Rockets are 85.7% (6-1) to the over/under away

The Rockets are 83.3% (5-1) to the over/under as an away fav

The Rockets are 85.7% (6-1) (L14) against the spread away

The Rockets are 83.3% (5-1) (L14) against the spread as an away fav

The Rockets are 71.4% (10-4) (L14) to the over/under

The Rockets are 85.7% (6-1) (L14) to the over/under away

The Rockets are 83.3% (5-1) (L14) to the over/under as an away fav

View All Records

Suns (Home)

The Suns are 70.6% (12-5) against the spread

The Suns are 90% (9-1) against the spread at home

The Suns are 55.6% (5-4) against the spread as a dog

The Suns are 100% (3-0) against the spread as a home dog

The Suns are 47.1% (8-9) to the over/under

The Suns are 30% (3-7) to the over/under at home

The Suns are 55.6% (5-4) to the over/under as a dog

The Suns are 33.3% (1-2) to the over/under as a home dog

The Suns are 78.6% (11-3) (L14) against the spread

The Suns are 88.9% (8-1) (L14) against the spread at home

The Suns are 71.4% (5-2) (L14) against the spread as a dog

The Suns are 100% (3-0) (L14) against the spread as a home dog

The Suns are 35.7% (5-9) (L14) to the over/under

The Suns are 22.2% (2-7) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Suns are 42.9% (3-4) (L14) to the over/under as a dog

The Suns are 33.3% (1-2) (L14) to the over/under as a home dog

Rockets (Away)

The Rockets are 64.3% (9-5) against the spread

The Rockets are 85.7% (6-1) against the spread away

The Rockets are 61.5% (8-5) against the spread as a fav

The Rockets are 83.3% (5-1) against the spread as an away fav

The Rockets are 71.4% (10-4) to the over/under

The Rockets are 85.7% (6-1) to the over/under away

The Rockets are 69.2% (9-4) to the over/under as a fav

The Rockets are 83.3% (5-1) to the over/under as an away fav

The Rockets are 64.3% (9-5) (L14) against the spread

The Rockets are 85.7% (6-1) (L14) against the spread away

The Rockets are 61.5% (8-5) (L14) against the spread as a fav

The Rockets are 83.3% (5-1) (L14) against the spread as an away fav

The Rockets are 71.4% (10-4) (L14) to the over/under

The Rockets are 85.7% (6-1) (L14) to the over/under away

The Rockets are 69.2% (9-4) (L14) to the over/under as a fav

The Rockets are 83.3% (5-1) (L14) to the over/under as an away fav

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Date	Season	Team	Pts	Site	Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
03/30/25	2024	Suns	109	Home	Rockets	148	+2.5	221.0	+39	257
03/12/25	2024	Suns	104	Away	Rockets	111	+4.5	227.5	+7	215
02/12/25	2024	Suns	111	Away	Rockets	119	+10.0	220.5	+8	230
03/02/24	2023	Suns	109	Home	Rockets	118	-9.0	232.0	+9	227
02/29/24	2023	Suns	110	Home	Rockets	105	-8.5	231.5	-5	215
02/23/24	2023	Suns	110	Away	Rockets	114	-3.0	235.0	+4	224
12/27/23	2023	Suns	129	Away	Rockets	113	-3.5	225.0	-16	242
Suns as Home (3 games)			109.3	-	-	123.7	-5.0	228.2	+14.3	233.0
All Games Avg (7 games)			111.7	-	-	118.3	-1.0	227.5	+6.6	230.0

Schedules

Rockets Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/30/25	2025	Rockets	-	away	Jazz	-	-	-	-	-
11/26/25	2025	Rockets	-	away	Warriors	-	-1.5	224.5	-	-
11/24/25	2025	Rockets	-	away	Suns	-	-6.5	224.5	-	-
11/21/25	2025	Rockets	109	home	Nuggets	112	-3.0	234.0	+3	221
11/19/25	2025	Rockets	114	away	Cavaliers	104	-1.5	233.5	-10	218
11/16/25	2025	Rockets	117	home	Magic	113	-7.5	223.5	-4	230
11/14/25	2025	Rockets	140	home	Trailblazers	116	-7.5	236.5	-24	256
11/12/25	2025	Rockets	135	home	Wizards	112	-17.0	237.0	-23	247
11/09/25	2025	Rockets	122	away	Bucks	115	-3.5	232.5	-7	237
11/07/25	2025	Rockets	110	away	Spurs	121	-3.5	224.5	+11	231
11/05/25	2025	Rockets	124	away	Grizzlies	109	-7.5	232.5	-15	233
11/03/25	2025	Rockets	110	home	Mavericks	102	-12.5	226.5	-8	212
11/01/25	2025	Rockets	128	away	Celtics	101	-4.5	226.5	-27	229
Away Games Avg (5 games)			119.6	-	-	110.0	-4.1	229.9	-9.6	229.6
All Games Avg (10 games)			120.9	-	-	110.5	-6.8	230.7	-10.4	231.4

Suns Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/28/25	2025	Suns	-	away	Thunder	-	-	-	-	-
11/26/25	2025	Suns	-	away	Kings	-	-	-	-	-
11/24/25	2025	Suns	-	home	Rockets	-	+6.5	224.5	-	-
11/23/25	2025	Suns	111	home	Spurs	102	-1.5	234.0	-9	213
11/21/25	2025	Suns	114	home	Timberwolves	113	+4.5	230.5	-1	227
11/18/25	2025	Suns	127	away	Trailblazers	110	+2.5	235.5	-17	237
11/16/25	2025	Suns	122	home	Hawks	124	-1.5	226.0	+2	246
11/13/25	2025	Suns	133	home	Pacers	98	-3.5	233.5	-35	231
11/12/25	2025	Suns	123	away	Mavericks	114	-2.0	227.5	-9	237
11/10/25	2025	Suns	121	home	Pelicans	98	-8.5	227.5	-23	219
11/08/25	2025	Suns	114	away	Clippers	103	+4.5	226.0	-11	217
11/06/25	2025	Suns	115	home	Clippers	102	-2.5	224.5	-13	217
11/04/25	2025	Suns	107	away	Warriors	118	+10.5	235.5	+11	225
Home Games Avg (6 games)			119.3	-	-	106.2	-2.2	229.3	-13.2	225.5
All Games Avg (10 games)			118.7	-	-	108.2	+0.3	230.1	-10.5	226.9

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

10:00 p.m.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Sacramento Kings

Timberwolves: 10-6 (62.5%)

Kings: 4-13 (23.5%)

Line: +9.5

Total: 237.0

Open: +7.5

Open: 236.5

Notes

Timberwolves

Situational Factor(s)

Rest advantage

Well-rested (two or more days of rest)

Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Baller System(s)

Back road favorite who won previous matchup at home

Kings

Situational Factor(s)

In-season revenge

Double digit, in-season revenge

1st game home off long road trip (at least 3 games)

4th game in 6 nights

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Baller Index Our Exclusive nba Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

Timberwolves

57.71% probability

Total Recommendation

Over

58.75% probability

View All Algorithms

Algorithm	Season	Recent	Site
Normalized Regression	Lean Timberwolves	Timberwolves	Lean Timberwolves
Rating Differentials	Timberwolves	Timberwolves	Timberwolves
Defensive Differentials	Lean Timberwolves	Timberwolves	Lean Timberwolves
RMSE High Thresshold	Timberwolves (2x)	-	-
Broad Feature MAE2	Timberwolves (2x)	-	-
Basic Stats RMSE	Lean Timberwolves	Lean Timberwolves	Lean Timberwolves
RMSE Balanced	Timberwolves (2x)	Timberwolves (2x)	Timberwolves (2x)
Linear Regression Balanced	Lean Timberwolves	-	-
Cover Summary	Timberwolves	Timberwolves	Timberwolves
Pace Focused	Over	Over	Over
Total Summary	Over	Over	Over
OVERALL	Timberwolves \| Over

Notable Trends

The Kings are 14.3% (1-6) against the spread at home

The Kings are 0% (0-4) against the spread as a home dog

The Kings are 20% (1-4) (L14) against the spread at home

The Kings are 0% (0-4) (L14) against the spread as a home dog

The Timberwolves are 27.3% (3-8) (L14) to the over/under as a fav

View All Records

Kings (Home)

The Kings are 35.3% (6-11) against the spread

The Kings are 14.3% (1-6) against the spread at home

The Kings are 35.7% (5-9) against the spread as a dog

The Kings are 0% (0-4) against the spread as a home dog

The Kings are 52.9% (9-8) to the over/under

The Kings are 57.1% (4-3) to the over/under at home

The Kings are 50% (7-7) to the over/under as a dog

The Kings are 50% (2-2) to the over/under as a home dog

The Kings are 42.9% (6-8) (L14) against the spread

The Kings are 20% (1-4) (L14) against the spread at home

The Kings are 38.5% (5-8) (L14) against the spread as a dog

The Kings are 0% (0-4) (L14) against the spread as a home dog

The Kings are 50% (7-7) (L14) to the over/under

The Kings are 60% (3-2) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Kings are 46.2% (6-7) (L14) to the over/under as a dog

The Kings are 50% (2-2) (L14) to the over/under as a home dog

Timberwolves (Away)

The Timberwolves are 37.5% (6-10) against the spread

The Timberwolves are 37.5% (3-5) against the spread away

The Timberwolves are 46.2% (6-7) against the spread as a fav

The Timberwolves are 42.9% (3-4) against the spread as an away fav

The Timberwolves are 43.8% (7-9) to the over/under

The Timberwolves are 62.5% (5-3) to the over/under away

The Timberwolves are 38.5% (5-8) to the over/under as a fav

The Timberwolves are 57.1% (4-3) to the over/under as an away fav

The Timberwolves are 42.9% (6-8) (L14) against the spread

The Timberwolves are 50% (3-3) (L14) against the spread away

The Timberwolves are 54.5% (6-5) (L14) against the spread as a fav

The Timberwolves are 60% (3-2) (L14) against the spread as an away fav

The Timberwolves are 35.7% (5-9) (L14) to the over/under

The Timberwolves are 50% (3-3) (L14) to the over/under away

The Timberwolves are 27.3% (3-8) (L14) to the over/under as a fav

The Timberwolves are 40% (2-3) (L14) to the over/under as an away fav

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Date	Season	Team	Pts	Site	Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/14/25	2025	Kings	110	Away	Timberwolves	124	+11.5	240.0	+14	234
11/09/25	2025	Kings	117	Home	Timberwolves	144	+4.5	238.5	+27	261
02/03/25	2024	Kings	116	Away	Timberwolves	114	+5.0	223.0	-2	230
11/27/24	2024	Kings	115	Away	Timberwolves	104	+2.5	219.5	-11	219
11/15/24	2024	Kings	126	Home	Timberwolves	130	+1.5	222.0	+4	256
10/24/24	2024	Kings	115	Home	Timberwolves	117	+1.0	222.0	+2	232
03/01/24	2023	Kings	124	Away	Timberwolves	120	+6.5	224.0	-4	244
12/23/23	2023	Kings	98	Home	Timberwolves	110	-3.0	233.5	+12	208
11/24/23	2023	Kings	124	Away	Timberwolves	111	+4.0	229.5	-13	235
Kings as Home (4 games)			114.0	-	-	125.3	+1.0	229.0	+11.3	239.3
All Games Avg (9 games)			116.1	-	-	119.3	+3.7	228.0	+3.2	235.4

Schedules

Timberwolves Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/29/25	2025	Timberwolves	-	home	Celtics	-	-	-	-	-
11/26/25	2025	Timberwolves	-	away	Thunder	-	+8.5	225.5	-	-
11/24/25	2025	Timberwolves	-	away	Kings	-	-9.5	237.0	-	-
11/21/25	2025	Timberwolves	113	away	Suns	114	-4.5	230.5	+1	227
11/19/25	2025	Timberwolves	120	home	Wizards	109	-16.5	239.5	-11	229
11/17/25	2025	Timberwolves	120	home	Mavericks	96	-14.5	232.5	-24	216
11/15/25	2025	Timberwolves	112	home	Nuggets	123	+1.0	237.0	+11	235
11/14/25	2025	Timberwolves	124	home	Kings	110	-11.5	240.0	-14	234
11/10/25	2025	Timberwolves	120	away	Jazz	113	-7.5	234.5	-7	233
11/09/25	2025	Timberwolves	144	away	Kings	117	-4.5	238.5	-27	261
11/07/25	2025	Timberwolves	137	home	Jazz	97	-15.5	236.5	-40	234
11/05/25	2025	Timberwolves	114	away	Knicks	137	+3.5	228.5	+23	251
11/03/25	2025	Timberwolves	125	away	Nets	109	-10.0	226.5	-16	234
Away Games Avg (5 games)			123.2	-	-	118.0	-4.6	231.7	-5.2	241.2
All Games Avg (10 games)			122.9	-	-	112.5	-8.0	234.4	-10.4	235.4

Kings Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/28/25	2025	Kings	-	away	Jazz	-	-	-	-	-
11/26/25	2025	Kings	-	home	Suns	-	-	-	-	-
11/24/25	2025	Kings	-	home	Timberwolves	-	+9.5	237.0	-	-
11/22/25	2025	Kings	128	away	Nuggets	123	+11.0	239.5	-5	251
11/20/25	2025	Kings	96	away	Grizzlies	137	+3.5	234.5	+41	233
11/19/25	2025	Kings	99	away	Thunder	113	+18.5	232.5	+14	212
11/16/25	2025	Kings	110	away	Spurs	123	+6.5	242.5	+13	233
11/14/25	2025	Kings	110	away	Timberwolves	124	+11.5	240.0	+14	234
11/12/25	2025	Kings	100	home	Hawks	133	+4.5	230.5	+33	233
11/11/25	2025	Kings	108	home	Nuggets	122	+8.0	244.5	+14	230
11/09/25	2025	Kings	117	home	Timberwolves	144	+4.5	238.5	+27	261
11/07/25	2025	Kings	101	home	Thunder	132	+11.5	234.5	+31	233
11/05/25	2025	Kings	121	home	Warriors	116	-3.0	225.0	-5	237
Home Games Avg (5 games)			109.4	-	-	129.4	+5.1	234.6	+20.0	238.8
All Games Avg (10 games)			109.0	-	-	126.7	+7.7	236.2	+17.7	235.7

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

10:00 p.m.
Utah Jazz @ Golden State Warriors

Jazz: 5-11 (31.3%)

Warriors: 9-9 (50.0%)

Line: -14.5

Total: 239.5

Open: -14.5

Open: 239.5

Notes

Jazz

Situational Factor(s)

2nd game of a back-to-back

3rd game in 4 nights

Baller System(s)

Fade team who has played most of their games on the road in recent games

Warriors

Situational Factor(s)

Rest advantage

Well-rested (two or more days of rest)

Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Baller System(s)

Back team with rest advantage and less rest in next game

Baller Index Our Exclusive nba Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

Warriors

58.40% probability

Total Recommendation

Under

58.75% probability

View All Algorithms

Algorithm	Season	Recent	Site
Normalized Regression	Lean Warriors	Lean Warriors	Lean Warriors
Rating Differentials	Lean Warriors	Lean Warriors	Lean Warriors
Defensive Differentials	Lean Jazz	Lean Warriors	Lean Warriors
RMSE High Thresshold	Warriors (2x)	-	-
Broad Feature MAE2	Warriors	-	-
Basic Stats RMSE	Warriors (2x)	Warriors (2x)	Warriors (2x)
RMSE Balanced	Warriors (2x)	Warriors (2x)	Warriors (2x)
Linear Regression Balanced	Warriors (2x)	-	-
Cover Summary	Warriors	Warriors	Warriors
Pace Focused	Under	Under	Under
Total Summary	Under	Under	Under
OVERALL	Warriors \| Under

Notable Trends

The Warriors are 83.3% (5-1) against the spread at home

The Warriors are 80% (4-1) against the spread as a home fav

The Warriors are 72.7% (8-3) to the over/under as a fav

The Warriors are 75% (3-1) (L14) against the spread at home

The Warriors are 25% (1-3) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Jazz are 28.6% (2-5) against the spread away

The Jazz are 14.3% (1-6) to the over/under away

The Jazz are 16.7% (1-5) to the over/under as an away dog

The Jazz are 16.7% (1-5) (L14) against the spread away

The Jazz are 20% (1-4) (L14) against the spread as an away dog

The Jazz are 16.7% (1-5) (L14) to the over/under away

The Jazz are 20% (1-4) (L14) to the over/under as an away dog

View All Records

Warriors (Home)

The Warriors are 50% (9-9) against the spread

The Warriors are 83.3% (5-1) against the spread at home

The Warriors are 54.5% (6-5) against the spread as a fav

The Warriors are 80% (4-1) against the spread as a home fav

The Warriors are 66.7% (12-6) to the over/under

The Warriors are 50% (3-3) to the over/under at home

The Warriors are 72.7% (8-3) to the over/under as a fav

The Warriors are 60% (3-2) to the over/under as a home fav

The Warriors are 42.9% (6-8) (L14) against the spread

The Warriors are 75% (3-1) (L14) against the spread at home

The Warriors are 42.9% (3-4) (L14) against the spread as a fav

The Warriors are 66.7% (2-1) (L14) against the spread as a home fav

The Warriors are 57.1% (8-6) (L14) to the over/under

The Warriors are 25% (1-3) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Warriors are 57.1% (4-3) (L14) to the over/under as a fav

The Warriors are 33.3% (1-2) (L14) to the over/under as a home fav

Jazz (Away)

The Jazz are 56.3% (9-7) against the spread

The Jazz are 28.6% (2-5) against the spread away

The Jazz are 57.1% (8-6) against the spread as a dog

The Jazz are 33.3% (2-4) against the spread as an away dog

The Jazz are 50% (8-8) to the over/under

The Jazz are 14.3% (1-6) to the over/under away

The Jazz are 50% (7-7) to the over/under as a dog

The Jazz are 16.7% (1-5) to the over/under as an away dog

The Jazz are 50% (7-7) (L14) against the spread

The Jazz are 16.7% (1-5) (L14) against the spread away

The Jazz are 50% (6-6) (L14) against the spread as a dog

The Jazz are 20% (1-4) (L14) against the spread as an away dog

The Jazz are 50% (7-7) (L14) to the over/under

The Jazz are 16.7% (1-5) (L14) to the over/under away

The Jazz are 50% (6-6) (L14) to the over/under as a dog

The Jazz are 20% (1-4) (L14) to the over/under as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Date	Season	Team	Pts	Site	Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
02/05/25	2024	Warriors	128	Away	Jazz	131	-6.5	222.0	+3	259
01/28/25	2024	Warriors	114	Home	Jazz	103	-10.5	220.5	-11	217
10/25/24	2024	Warriors	127	Away	Jazz	86	-6.5	234.5	-41	213
04/14/24	2023	Warriors	123	Home	Jazz	116	-11.0	224.0	-7	239
04/07/24	2023	Warriors	118	Home	Jazz	110	-12.5	225.0	-8	228
02/15/24	2023	Warriors	140	Away	Jazz	137	-2.5	240.5	-3	277
02/12/24	2023	Warriors	129	Away	Jazz	107	-1.0	241.0	-22	236
Warriors as Home (3 games)			118.3	-	-	109.7	-11.3	223.2	-8.7	228.0
All Games Avg (7 games)			125.6	-	-	112.9	-7.2	229.6	-12.7	238.4

Schedules

Jazz Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/30/25	2025	Jazz	-	home	Rockets	-	-	-	-	-
11/28/25	2025	Jazz	-	home	Kings	-	-	-	-	-
11/24/25	2025	Jazz	-	away	Warriors	-	+14.5	239.5	-	-
11/23/25	2025	Jazz	106	home	Lakers	108	+9.0	245.0	+2	214
11/21/25	2025	Jazz	112	home	Thunder	144	+16.5	234.5	+32	256
11/18/25	2025	Jazz	126	away	Lakers	140	+12.5	239.5	+14	266
11/16/25	2025	Jazz	150	home	Bulls	147	+4.5	244.5	-3	297
11/13/25	2025	Jazz	122	home	Hawks	132	+1.5	234.5	+10	254
11/11/25	2025	Jazz	152	home	Pacers	128	+2.0	234.0	-24	280
11/10/25	2025	Jazz	113	home	Timberwolves	120	+7.5	234.5	+7	233
11/07/25	2025	Jazz	97	away	Timberwolves	137	+15.5	236.5	+40	234
11/05/25	2025	Jazz	103	away	Pistons	114	+9.5	233.0	+11	217
11/03/25	2025	Jazz	105	away	Celtics	103	+10.5	233.5	-2	208
Away Games Avg (4 games)			107.8	-	-	123.5	+12.0	235.6	+15.8	231.3
All Games Avg (10 games)			118.6	-	-	127.3	+8.9	237.0	+8.7	245.9

Warriors Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/29/25	2025	Warriors	-	home	Pelicans	-	-	-	-	-
11/26/25	2025	Warriors	-	home	Rockets	-	+1.5	224.5	-	-
11/24/25	2025	Warriors	-	home	Jazz	-	-14.5	239.5	-	-
11/21/25	2025	Warriors	123	home	Trailblazers	127	-10.5	237.0	+4	250
11/19/25	2025	Warriors	96	away	Heat	110	+10.5	234.5	+14	206
11/18/25	2025	Warriors	113	away	Magic	121	-2.5	223.5	+8	234
11/16/25	2025	Warriors	124	away	Pelicans	106	-11.0	226.5	-18	230
11/14/25	2025	Warriors	109	away	Spurs	108	+3.0	233.5	-1	217
11/12/25	2025	Warriors	125	away	Spurs	120	+3.5	232.5	-5	245
11/11/25	2025	Warriors	102	away	Thunder	126	+8.0	227.5	+24	228
11/09/25	2025	Warriors	114	home	Pacers	83	-12.5	221.5	-31	197
11/07/25	2025	Warriors	104	away	Nuggets	129	+9.5	230.5	+25	233
11/05/25	2025	Warriors	116	away	Kings	121	+3.0	225.0	+5	237
Home Games Avg (2 games)			118.5	-	-	105.0	-11.5	229.3	-13.5	223.5
All Games Avg (10 games)			112.6	-	-	115.1	+0.1	229.2	+2.5	227.7

Premium Content

7:00 p.m. Detroit Pistons @ Indiana Pacers

Notes

Pistons

Baller System(s)

Pacers

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Spread Recommendation

Total Recommendation

View All Algorithms

Algorithm Breakdown

Notable Trends

View All Records

Pacers (Home)

Pistons (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Schedules

Pistons Schedule

Pacers Schedule

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

7:00 p.m. Cleveland Cavaliers @ Toronto Raptors

Notes

Cavaliers

Situational Factor(s)

Raptors

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Spread Recommendation

Total Recommendation

View All Algorithms

Algorithm Breakdown

Notable Trends

View All Records

Raptors (Home)

Cavaliers (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Schedules

Cavaliers Schedule

Raptors Schedule

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

7:30 p.m. Dallas Mavericks @ Miami Heat

Notes

Mavericks

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Heat

Situational Factor(s)

Spread Recommendation

Total Recommendation

View All Algorithms

Algorithm Breakdown

Notable Trends

View All Records

Heat (Home)

Mavericks (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Schedules

Mavericks Schedule

Heat Schedule

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

7:30 p.m. New York Knicks @ Brooklyn Nets

Notes

Knicks

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Nets

Situational Factor(s)

Spread Recommendation

Total Recommendation

View All Algorithms

Algorithm Breakdown

Notable Trends

View All Records

Nets (Home)

Knicks (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Schedules

Knicks Schedule

Nets Schedule

7:00 p.m.
Detroit Pistons @ Indiana Pacers

7:00 p.m.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Toronto Raptors

7:30 p.m.
Dallas Mavericks @ Miami Heat

7:30 p.m.
New York Knicks @ Brooklyn Nets

8:00 p.m.
Portland Trailblazers @ Milwaukee Bucks

8:00 p.m.
Denver Nuggets @ Memphis Grizzlies

8:00 p.m.
Chicago Bulls @ New Orleans Pelicans

9:30 p.m.
Houston Rockets @ Phoenix Suns