Knicks @ Celtics [ Celtics -10.5 / 210.5 ]

Knicks | 56-33 (62.9%)
Celtics | 65-23 (73.9%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Celtics (-10.5) a 49.2-51.6% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 210.5 around 37.7-62.4% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Celtics have a 51.4% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 38% chance of going over the total.

Knicks Situational Notes
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)
Coming off an Overtime game

Baller Systems
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Celtics Situational Notes
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)
Coming off an Overtime game

Baller Systems
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Knicks Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
5/10NYK-
-		-BOS---
5/7BOSNYK +10.5
BOS -10.5
210.5NYK---
5/5BOS [ 105 ]NYK +9
BOS -9
213NYK [ 108 ]+3+120
5/1DET [ 113 ]NYK +1
DET -1
212.5NYK [ 116 ]+3+4+16.5
4/29NYK [ 103 ]NYK -5.5
DET +5.5
215DET [ 106 ]-3-8.5-6
4/27DET [ 93 ]NYK +2.5
DET -2.5
216.5NYK [ 94 ]+1+3.5-29.5
4/24DET [ 116 ]NYK -1.5
DET +1.5
216.5NYK [ 118 ]+2+0.5+17.5
4/21NYK [ 94 ]NYK -6.5
DET +6.5
221DET [ 100 ]-6-12.5-27
4/19NYK [ 123 ]NYK -6.5
DET +6.5
221DET [ 112 ]+11+4.5+14
4/13BKN [ 105 ]NYK -4.5
BKN +4.5
210NYK [ 113 ]+8+3.5+8
Celtics Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
5/10NYK-
-		-BOS---
5/7BOSBOS -10.5
NYK +10.5
210.5NYK---
5/5BOS [ 105 ]BOS -9
NYK +9
213NYK [ 108 ]-3-120
4/29BOS [ 120 ]BOS -11.5
ORL +11.5
199ORL [ 89 ]+31+19.5+10
4/27ORL [ 98 ]BOS -8
ORL +8
199BOS [ 107 ]+9+1+6
4/25ORL [ 95 ]BOS -5.5
ORL +5.5
201BOS [ 93 ]-2-7.5-13
4/23BOS [ 109 ]BOS -10
ORL +10
196.5ORL [ 100 ]+9-1+12.5
4/20BOS [ 103 ]BOS -12.5
ORL +12.5
205ORL [ 86 ]+17+4.5-16
4/13BOS [ 93 ]BOS -10.5
CHA +10.5
209CHA [ 86 ]+7-3.5-30
4/11BOS [ 130 ]BOS -20
CHA +20
215CHA [ 94 ]+36+16+9
Historical Matchups
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU MarginPaceOrtgDrtgNetTot
5/10NYK-
-		-BOS----
-
-
-
-
5/7BOSBOS -10.5
NYK +10.5
210.5NYK----
-
-
-
-
5/5BOS [ 105 ]BOS -9
NYK +9
213NYK [ 108 ]-3-12089
106.8
109.9
-3.1
192.9
4/8NYK [ 117 ]BOS -2
NYK +2
224.5BOS [ 119 ]+20+11.590.2
119.5
117.5
2
213.7
2/23BOS [ 118 ]BOS -7.5
NYK +7.5
231NYK [ 105 ]+13+5.5-895.4
123.7
110.1
13.6
223
2/8NYK [ 104 ]BOS -3
NYK +3
231BOS [ 131 ]+27+24+493.3
140.5
111.5
29
235
10/22BOS [ 132 ]BOS -6
NYK +6
221.5NYK [ 109 ]+23+17+19.588.2
149.6
123.6
26.1
241
4/11BOS [ 109 ]BOS +3
NYK -3
221.5NYK [ 118 ]-9-6+5.593.7
116.4
126
-9.6
227
2/24NYK [ 102 ]BOS -5.5
NYK +5.5
223.5BOS [ 116 ]+14+8.5-5.582.2
141.1
124.1
17
218
12/8BOS [ 133 ]BOS -7
NYK +7
221NYK [ 123 ]+10+3+3597.1
137
126.7
10.3
256
11/13BOS [ 114 ]BOS -9.5
NYK +9.5
220.5NYK [ 98 ]+16+6.5-8.584.2
135.3
116.3
19
212

Efficiency
Knicks
(7 game/s)		 Celtics
(6 game/s)
0.71 (3)Win Percentage0.67 (4)
0.71 (1)ATS Win%0.5 (7)
0.5 (8)OU%0.6 (6)
-Strength of Schedule-
111.55 (11)Offensive Rating113.63 (8)
109.45 (13)Defensive Rating103.79 (12)
95.6 (8)Pace91.38 (19)
1.52 (13)A/TO Ratio1.51 (14)

Four Factors
Knicks
(7 game/s)		 Celtics
(6 game/s)
51.38 (13)EFG%52.16 (11)
49.75 (13)EFG% Allowed47.94 (11)
27.85 (4)FT Rate31.83 (3)
32.55 (29)FT Rate Allowed26.33 (22)
24.28 (12)OReb%26.03 (9)
28.52 (27)OReb% Allowed25 (20)
13.43 (19)TO Rate14.09 (22)
16.6 (4)TO Rate Forced12.79 (12)

Scoring
Knicks
(7 game/s)		 Celtics
(6 game/s)
108 (8)PPG106.17 (11)
106.43 (18)PPG Allowed96 (11)
17.14 (5)Pts off TO15.33 (11)
16.14 (21)Pts off TO Allowed14.33 (17)
17.29 (3)2nd Chance Pts14.5 (10)
17.14 (28)2nd Chance Pts Allowed14.33 (19)
14.29 (9)Fast Break Pts11.17 (16)
15.86 (25)Fast Break Pts Allowed10.5 (15)

Inside the Arc
Knicks
(7 game/s)		 Celtics
(6 game/s)
44.29 (7)Paint Attempts34.67 (19)
39.43 (18)Paint Attempts Allowed37 (15)
50.97 (17)Paint FG%56.25 (8)
55.43 (20)Paint FG% Allowed53.6 (19)
12.29 (6)Mid-Range Attempts10.5 (9)
9.86 (20)Mid-Range Attempts Allowed15.67 (29)
38.37 (15)Mid-Range FG%41.27 (10)
40.58 (21)Mid-Range FG% Allowed40.43 (20)

Three Point Shooting
Knicks
(7 game/s)		 Celtics
(6 game/s)
9.29 (7)Corner 3 Attempts7 (18)
9.86 (25)Corner 3 Attempts Allowed8 (18)
38.46 (5)Corner 3 FG%33.33 (13)
30.43 (12)Corner 3 FG% Allowed31.25 (14)
21.71 (18)ATB3 Attempts28.33 (8)
25.29 (20)ATB3 Attempts Allowed23.83 (17)
38.16 (7)ATB3 FG%35.29 (11)
31.07 (14)ATB3 FG% Allowed30.07 (12)


Straight Up Records (SU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Knicks 1h4-3-02-1-0--1-0-01-2-0------0-1-0
Knicks 5-21-2-1-03-0---1-0
Celtics 1h4-2-02-2-0--2-0-0------1-1-0--
Celtics 4-23-1-1-1---1-1-

Against the Spread Records (ATS)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Knicks 1h2-5-00-3-0--1-0-01-2-0------0-1-0
Knicks 5-2-01-2-0--1-0-03-0-0------1-0-0
Celtics 1h3-3-01-3-0--2-0-0------1-1-0--
Celtics 3-3-02-2-0--1-1-0------1-1-0--

Over/Under Records (OU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Knicks 1h2-5-00-3-0--1-0-01-2-0------0-1-0
Knicks 3-3-11-2-0--1-0-01-1-1------0-0-1
Celtics 1h1-5-00-4-0--1-1-0------0-2-0--
Celtics 3-2-12-1-1--1-1-0------0-1-1--

Team Total Records (TT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Knicks 1h2-5-00-3-0--1-0-01-2-0------0-1-0
Knicks 4-3-01-2-0--1-0-02-1-0------1-0-0
Celtics 1h2-3-11-3-0--1-0-1------1-1-0--
Celtics 3-3-02-2-0--1-1-0------0-2-0--

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Knicks 1h4-3-02-1-0--0-1-02-1-0------1-0-0
Knicks 4-3-02-1-0--1-0-01-2-0------0-1-0
Celtics 1h2-4-02-2-0--0-2-0------1-1-0--
Celtics 3-3-02-2-0--1-1-0------1-1-0--


ATS Range Records
TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Knicks0-0-0 (-)1-0-0 (100%)1-0-0 (100%)2-0-0 (100%)2-2-0 (50%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Celtics0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-1-0 (0%)1-1-0 (50%)2-2-0 (50%)